Introduction to Development Theories - Rostow’s development stages

 Rostow's stages of economic growth model is one of the major historical models of economic growth. It was published by American economist Walt Whitman Rostow in 1960. The model postulates that economic growth occurs in five basic stages, of varying length:

·       The traditional society

·       The preconditions for take-off

·       The take-off

·       The drive to maturity

·       The age of high mass-consumption

1.     Traditional Society:

This initial stage of traditional society signifies a primitive society having no access to modern science and technology. In other words, it is a society based on primi­tive technology and primitive attitude towards the physical World. Thus, Rostow defines a tradi­tional society “as one whose structure is developed within the limited production function based on pre-Newtonian science and technology and as pre-Newtonian attitudes towards the physical world”

However, Rostow does not view this traditional society as being completely static. In this stage of a society output could be increasing through the expansion of land area under cultivation or through the discovery and spread of a new crop.

But the critical fact about this type of society is that there is limit to attainable output per head. This limit arises due to the absence of access to modern science and technology. This type of a society allocates a large proportion of its resources to agriculture and is characterised by a hierarchical social structure in which there is little possibility for vertical mobility.

The value system that prevails in such a society is what Rostow calls a long-run fatalism. People of these societies think that not much economic progress is possible for them and for their future generations.

2.     Pre-Conditions or the Preparatory Stage:

This covers a long period of a century or more during which the preconditions for take-off are established. These conditions mainly comprise fundamental changes in the social, political and economic fields; for example:

·       A change in society’s attitudes towards science, risk-taking and profit-earning;

·       The adaptability of the labour force;

·       Political sovereignty;

·       Development of a centralised tax system and financial institutions; and

·   The construction of certain economic and social infrastructure like railways, ports, power generation and educational institutions.

It is evident from above that in this second stage of growth foundations for economic transfor­mation are laid. The people start using modern science and technology for increasing productivity in both agriculture and industry.

Further, there is a change in the attitude of the people who start viewing the world where there are possibilities of future growth. A new class of entrepreneurs emerges in the society who mobilise savings and undertake investment in new enterprises and bear risks and uncertainty. In the sphere of political organisation, it is during this stage that an effective centralised nation state starts emerging.

Thus, in the stage of precondition for take-off Rostow views agriculture as performing three roles;

·       First, agriculture must produce sufficient food-grains to meet the demand of growing population and of the workers who get employment in agriculture.

·       Secondly, increase in agricultural incomes would lead to the demand for industrial products and stimulate industrial investment.

·       Thirdly, expand­ing agriculture must provide much of the savings needed for the expansion of the industrial sector.

3.     The “Take-off” Stage:

This is the crucial stage which covers a relatively brief period of two to three decades in which the economy transforms itself in such a way that economic growth subsequently takes place more or less automatically. “The take-off” is defined as “the interval dur­ing which the rate of investment increases in such a way that real output per captia rises and this initial increase carries with it radical changes in the techniques of production and the disposition of income flows which perpetuate the new scale of investment and perpetuate thereby the rising trend in per captia output.”

Thus, during the take-off stage, the desire to achieve economic growth to raise the living standards dominates the society. Revolutionary changes occur in both agriculture and industry and productivity levels sharply increase.

There is greater urbanisation and urban labour force increases. In a relatively short period of a decade or two, both the basic structure of the economy and social and political structure is changed So that a self-sustaining growth rate can be maintained.

4.     Drive to Maturity: Period of Self-sustained Growth:

This stage of economic growth occurs when the economy becomes mature and is capable of generating self-sustained growth. The rates of saving and investment are of such a magnitude that economic development becomes automatic. Overall capital per head increases as the economy matures. The structure of the economy changes increasingly.

The initial key industries which sparked the take-off decelerate as diminishing returns set in. But the average rate of growth is maintained by a succession of new rapidly-growing sectors with a new set of leading sectors. The proportion of the population engaged in agriculture and other rural pursuit’s declines, and the structure of the country’s foreign trade undergoes a radical change.

It is with both the problems and the cyclical movements of national income in such mature growing economies in this fourth stage that the bulk of modern theoretical economics is concerned. The students of contemporary developing countries and also of economic history are more likely to be concerned with the economics of the previous two stages, that is, the economics of the preparatory and the ‘take-off’ stages. If we are to have a useful and adequate theory of economic growth, it must obviously be comprehensive enough to embrace these two stages as well, especially the economics of the “take-off into self-sustaining growth”.

5.     Stage of Mass Consumption:

In this stage of development per capita income of country rises to such a high level that consumption basket of the people increases beyond food, clothing and shelters to articles of comforts and luxuries on a mass scale. Further, with progressive industrialisa­tion and urbanisation of the economy values of people change in favour of more consumption of luxuries and high styles of living. New types of industries producing durable consumer goods come into existence which satisfies the wants for more consumption. These new industries producing durable consumer goods become the new leading sectors of economic growth.